A Green Degree Blog: New Angles On Sustainability

October 25th 2012

Somehow, UK Leads (Mostly) Europe-Wide Overachievement Towards Kyoto Targets

Well I must admit, I for one did not see this news coming, and it has come at quite the shock to me, and I would like to think much of the developed world and climate hawks all around. The EU is set to meet and surpass the greenhouse gas emission targets set out in the Kyoto Protocol way back in 1997, cutting overall amounts by at least 5% per country involved, which is a sizeable amount whichever way you cut it.

Considering many other developed nations have either long given up on reaching these goals, or have simply backed out in the interests of domestic markets (think Canada and their precious tar-sand resources), or never actually ratified the Protocol in the first place, the fact that the EU has achieved this is quite some show of progress in the right direction.

What surprised me even more so, and this is undoubtedly where my powerful cynicism comes into play, or what I like to think of as realistic cynicism at least, is that the United Kingdom is leading the pack in slashing GHG emissions in real terms (actual tonnes of emissions), cutting them by 6% in 2011, equivalent to roughly 36m tonnes of CO2. Compare this to 5% for France and just 2% for solar-rich Germany, and you see what all the fuss is about. Personally, and I don’t believe I was alone in this thought, I always mostly ignored the government’s claims of how well we were doing and how we would easily meet our targets and surpass them, and given recent developments in our energy policy, I would be mad to think of it as truth; but apparently I was wrong.

Now, there are multiple reasons as to why this sudden drop in emissions came to be, and when combined, they would seem to account for much of the cuts we are now seeing and inevitably will be boasting about on the global stage. Firstly, a milder year for weather all round depressed gas and electricity usage, and secondly, cleaner wind and solar energy has steadily been coming online since the mid-noughties, and even though there are relatively few numbers of MWs being produced via renewables, they obviously have a impact.

However, and possibly more importantly, a practically stagnant European economy drove down the use of any form of energy, be it fossil or renewable, in part forcing the decline in emissions, and in others the maddeningly new high bill costs supposedly ‘needed’ to keep the Big Six running our country’s supply of juice.

Why Germany Should Show Off It’s Dominant Renewable Economy

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Germany’s renewable share for the first half of 2012 has recently been released, and guess what, they’re thrashing the majority of EU nations comfortably, reaching 26% overall, a staggering increase from 20.5% during the same period last year. That means that over a quarter of the energy filling the German grid was produced purely by renewable means, and that is something they should be seriously proud of, and rubbing in our faces, as I’ll explain below.

What is even more interesting about this event, is the specific mix of renewables used in accomplishing this task. Wind sits in gold medal position with 9.2%, with biomass (surprisingly) taking second with 5.7%, whilst solar PV follows closely behind with 5.3%, expanding by over 40% in comparison to last year. That alone is an impressive stat to contend with, and was no doubt bolstered by Germany’s generous FiT, which although was recently slashed to save on funding, has been highly successful in generating consumer interest in solar as a viable energy alternative.

Hydropower boosted 25%, up to 4% in the overall mix, with all other renewables completing the lineup.

It’s no surprise that wind energy takes pole on the list given how perfectly flat, large and windy Germany as a landscape is, and their heavy involvement with the cheapest of all renewable technologies. Many have attributed the extra-impressive results to the weather this region of Europe has been experiencing over the past 6 months, with abnormally high winds spinning up the turbines country-wide, torrential rains over-powering the hydroelectric dams, and in the later parts of the year, intense solar radiations and clear skies bathing the abundant solar panels in beaming energy.

Then again, attempting to diminish the feats achieved by the German renewable grid by stating it ‘was the weather which made it so damn good’ is a tad cheeky, considering the very point of many clean energy sources is that the sun and weather itself drives the production. If we have optimal weather, then they’re working exactly as planned.

What was surprising is the biomass share, which was much more than I thought had been invested in, with this form of energy generally not so high on a country’s energy list. I’m assuming that good recycling programs and clever biomass burning policies mean that Germany’s energy production is relatively high here, although actual year-on-year growth has been the smallest in this sector, just 7.5%.

Japan Sets A Risky New Bar In Solar Tariffs: Too Risky?

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Ater what seemed like a potentially tumultuous time for Japan once the final nuclear reactor was shutdown just months ago, it seems the fledgling nuclear industry may once again be getting a restart, after conformation from the Japanese government to go ahead with the reopening of two reactors in the near future. Considering the fallout from Fukushima and intense protestation from the Japanese citizens towards any sign of rekindling the nuclear fire this is an important step forward in the debate.

It couldn’t come at a better time, as current supplies of fossil fuel based energy has been ramped up to over 90% from 60% before the shutdown to deal with the increased strain on the country, which of course leads to higher emissions and a greater risk to society as a whole, a reaction I figured would be the case from the moment of hearing about the nationwide closures. Coming into the hot Japanese summer was no doubt a primary factor in determining the restart of both plants, as an overuse of A/C and the need for cooling would have likely overloaded the grid periodically - not something a leading 1st world nation wants to be fronting during such critical times.

What is even more reassuring however is the news of a brand new feed in tariff directed towards Japanese renewable energy, with solar in particular, a sector which is booming globally, and set to really explode in Japan if given the right treatment, ala Germany or the UK. Whilst these FiTs are common ground to those who follow the solar debate, the Japanese have taken what is in my view an extremely risky and brash angle, which could bring them closer towards a solar dominated grid with popularity through the roof, or complete economic slump and a positive drive away from renewables as it stands.

They’ve done this choosing to set their price per KWh at a staggering $0.53, which is triple that of China’s and double the current UK rate, which is set to fall over the coming months. Through this astounding figure, which translates to how much money a consumer will be paid per unit of solar energy they produce, Japan hopes to blow all other solar markets out of the water, installing up to 20GW of solar alone by 2016.

This tariff also applies to wind, geothermal, biomass and more, all of which Japan is seemingly rushing into as the global markets pick up pace and fossil fuel support falls all around. Even wind FiTs beat German prices, currently some of the best in the world, and many of these tariffs guarantee set prices for 20 years, a much more ambitious projection than all other renewable European nations.

Personally I believe this is wonderful news to the highest degree, and to see a country which only recently shut its entire nuclear capacity down, an energy source to the tune of 30% of nationwide production, to then rapidly put in place such radical policies to promote renewables is signs of good things ahead. When many other countries are blaming a lack of solar, wind and biomass on a lack of space, unfavourable conditions and poor public support, Japan is flying in the face of such issues; the nation is comparably small, highly mountainous, densely populated and a world leader in technology and economics, and they plough on like never before. Many nations should take note and learn, as Japan could be the next big green player.

However, before I get too excited and jump the gun, I would like to point out some potential problems, some of which could really derail this phenomenal move. Both of the big leaders in solar FiTs, Germany and the UK have both experienced the results of highly attractive and lucrative tariffs, set too high for the nations coffers to fund once installations shot up dramatically. Due to this, both have been forced to slash prices and guarantees in the face of public protest, in attempts to be able to continue paying the consumers who so gleefully latched onto the policy.

Now we see Japan setting prices at double the market rate, with 20 year warranties; is this not setting itself up for a huge fall if they calculated wrong and cannot continue funding the explosive growth as many analysts expect? Germany and the UK thought they had it sorted, and even though their sectors are still growing, solar installations have taken a wounding blow, one which will continue to bleed for a whole longer before the market reasserts itself.

If Japan doesn’t manage to control these tariffs, we could see problems in the solar market which could deliver a potentially fatal blow to FiT schemes around the world. When you’re dealing with such a fickle public as ourselves, the knowledge that two or three schemes failed to deliver their original promises could mean the end for something which is only just finding its feet.

http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/index.cfm/go/news.display/id/23798

Posted at 10:20am and tagged with: Solar, Japan, Uk, Germany, Feed in tariff, FiT, Economy, Technology, Nuclear, Fukishima, Public, Politics, Policy, Market, China, Wind, Energy, Renewable, Green, Biomass, Fossil fuel, Climate, Carbon,.

April 9th 2012

Japan Turns To Oil And LNG To Fill Impending Nuclear Gap

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For Japan, the coming hot Summer and impending shutdown of its final nuclear power plant weighs heavy on the governments mind, forcing them to import an increased percentage of fossil fuels in the form of oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) to sustain the country on its current path.

Increased relations with Middle East fuel suppliers and investments in an Australian subsea pipeline evident this frenzied search for extra juice, with suspected imports of hydrocarbon fuels up by 15-30% compared with periods before the Fukushima disaster, which subsequently scared many of the world’s greatest economic powers to kill its nuclear generating capacity. This is costing the country in the billions of dollars and will throw them into a vicious cycle of increasing costs and de-incentivised innovation by its energy industries.

With the last nuclear plant set to close in May, following the shutting down of 53 others, partly due to safety and disaster issues, but also for the necessary regulatory checks and measures to be carried out, the 30% of Japanese electricity produced by fission now has to be rapidly filled in time for the air-conditioned summer expected. It is also unclear as to the future of those plants shutdown. Whether they are eventually turned back on after months of checks and re-checks, slowly feeding energy back into the system, or whether their fate is to be left as a relic of the bygone nuclear age that Japan so eagerly adopted decades ago, nobody knows.

Japan was able to complete this shutdown without wide-scale blackouts due to its 23% renewable share and smart but unfortunate use of emergency fossil fuel imports and energy-saving techniques which helped them through the disaster last year. However, the country will still fall short in peak summer months when its citizens ramp up the fans and climate control, and this is a serious problem for the 3rd largest world economy still reeling from Fukushima and anticipating further earthquakes in the near-future.

Big News - E.On And RWE Bail Out Of UK Nuclear Due To Finance

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Both German energy giants E.On and RWE today stated that they were pulling out of a two-reactor build on the Isle of Anglesey due to financial problems in working up the necessary cash and support from the German government for plans to go ahead. The original program, named Horizon, was a joint venture between the two and was estimated to cost £15 billion in all, providing roughly 6,000MW of energy for the UK grid.

However, given the current German climate for nuclear, the heavy costs and running times associated with this reactor and the industry in general, the companies had to cancel. They state they’re working hard to find a new buyer to keep the plans open and on course, but will not be working together, or with any other partners in the future, on anything that involves nuclear plants, stating that the industry has ‘gotten smaller’.

This comes at a time when the UK government is trying to rectify their energy policy and promote nuclear from abroad, in attempts to kill emissions and clean up the country’s production capacity, but with this huge blow to the program, it’s beginning to look unlikely that nuclear will be playing any significant part in the process. EDF and Centrica are currently planning a build in Somerset, but await investment finalisation come the end of this year, but aside from that, no other plans appear ready and waiting.

In one of my earlier blogs titled ‘Nuclear Becoming Less Viable By The Day’, I rounded up some opinions by the Guardian Eco and other sources, suggesting that the only company who really have the clout and wallet to fund new nuclear industry in the UK would be EDF, and that being 85% a French company would be selling our energy futures to France.

However, given this news, it seems highly unlikely that any further plans will be made, at least not for the foreseeable future, as EDF already has a plan being outlined and finalised, and I would doubt a commitment from them or Centrica to carry on the Horizon project. If RWE and E.On can’t afford to front the money needed to kickstart a second nuclear renaissance in the UK, then who else is there?

Some will probably see this as a blessing in disguise, scrapping nuclear the easy way and opening the government’s eyes to the financial and time-consuming disadvantages of the industry at the moment, opening up avenues for solar and wind investment instead. On the other hand, without nuclear, a factor purposely built into our energy policy, there’s a rather large gap needed to be quickly filled as of today, unless by some stroke of luck an investor is found.

As details unfold I’ll try to keep on top of them, but for the moment it seems that Cameron and Clegg should turn their attention to something us in the UK are guaranteed - a LOT of wind. Off-shore wind investment anyone?

Source - http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/03/29/uk-eon-rwe-idUKBRE82S09720120329

www.scotsman.com/news/e-on-takes-hit-from-german-nuclear-policy-1-2171899

Posted at 12:24pm and tagged with: nuclear, e.on, RWE, germany, UK, energy,.

March 23rd 2012

Solar Deserves Our Attention, And Money, For Many Decades To Come

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www.solarselections.co.uk/blog

Judging from recent events and articles I’ve been seeing skip their way around the internet, there appears to be a recurring theme on the subject of solar feed-in-tariffs (FiT) and their destined lifetime in the modern economy. Many governments and analysts seem to think that, given just a few more years of subsidies and kind cash incentives from their respective leaders, will allow the industry to pip fossil fuels to the post finally, and cement their place in the energy world of the future.

However, isn’t that missing the point…and not just the point, but quite a few historical facts about our past energy production policies? While it may be true that given these last few years of investment, solar could become largely cost-competetive with coal, allowing us to drop the cash-flow into collecting the sun and go back to business as usual whilst solar sits happy in its own corner, it seems misguided.

I and many others feel that this would ultimately be leaving solar in the lurch. We’ve pumped millions of pounds into coal and nuclear in past decades, up to centuries in some cases, which has brought the price down to comfortable levels for us consumers, and yet we seem happy for that to carry on well into the future. The nuclear industry has benefited from this government subsidy program for almost 50 years and yet, given recent disasters and economic issues, is practically dead in the water. So why should, despite these facts, we allow solar to be heavily subsidised for 5-10 years, only to pull that rug abruptly away once parity is reached?

It would make much more sense to continue investing in solar and driving down the p/KWh costs well past that of coal and gas, for at least the same amount of time money has been injected into the fledgling nuclear industry. Not only is solar booming in every sense of the word, it provides perfectly clean, increasingly efficient energy, which can be accessed by individuals and not those with pipelines and wallets big enough to import it, and provides energy securities of which the public has never seen. Therefore, solar becoming cheap and sustainable will provide benefits for society, industry, climate and the environment, so why stop just before that threshold is reached?

We’ve seen what happens when this metaphorical rug is pulled from underneath, in the stories of both the German and UK FiT’s being cut under increasing economic pressure. These policies were victims of their own success, making solar so attractive to the casual citizen that Germany installed more PV year-on-year than any other country in the world, with investment in the UK closing in behind. However, as governments realised that continuing to pay out these subsidies would drain the banks rapidly, they cut them, by just over 51% in Germany and 29% in the UK.

Even though this kicked off protests in cities such as Berlin and installation numbers dropped drastically, the interest didn’t wane, and both countries are still dealing with record numbers of solar requests with many others following suit (India, China, the US). These events however should be seen as a warning to the coming uproar that would inevitably happen if incentives are dropped as suddenly as expected.

Germany solar FiTs were deemed ‘not necessary’ anymore for the industry to stand on its own feet, but again, this misses the point; coal has been able to stand on its own feet for decades, so why is this still necessary? No doubt if governments pulled investment from their respective fossil fuel industries, many would collapse under the increasing costs of importation and security.

Surely it is becoming clearer to see that solar, and of course wind, are perfectly placed to absorb just a portion of the money currently being dirtied in the hands of coal and gas, to bring about grid parity and surpass this. The health, environmental and economic benefits are so obviously great that I’m shocked that many feel solar incentives have reached their peak. The recent controversy surrounding Chinese subsidies and their potentially illegal impacts on international trade are but a speed bump in the grand scheme, and the solar industry powers on without notice bar a blip on the graphs.

It would be mad, in my opinion at least, to ignore all the signs that solar could be our saviour in a world of dirty coal and dangerous nuclear, where as it stands, converting the suns energy to electricity has literally no disadvantages. To cut subsidies in this sector now, when we allow fossil fuels the privilege of ravaging our landscape and health almost free of charge, would be a knife in the proverbial back of the entire solar industry.

Sources: http://cleantechnica.com/2012/03/23/what-are-solar-feed-in-tariffs-incentives-for/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

http://cleantechnica.com/2011/06/26/true-value-of-solar-power/

http://www.solarfeeds.com/what-do-solar-panel-tariffs-mean-for-you/

Posted at 3:27pm and tagged with: solar, feed-in-tariff, germany, subsidy,.

March 21st 2012

Germany Is Spending How Much On Renewables?!

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www.spiegel.de/international/germany

Bloomberg announced recently that industrial and renewable powerhouse Germany is planning on spending a whopping $263 billion (£167 billion), or 8% of their 2011 GDP, on an audacious energy transition involving low-carbon solutions and paving a way towards a greener future. The report did not state specific timescales or proposed plan implementation, but set goals of 35% renewable by 2030, and 80% by 2050, mentioning some of the ways Angela Merkel is hoping to achieve this huge goal.

In short, an area of offshore wind farms six times the size of New York City, amounting to 5,000 individual turbines are to be built, providing 25,000MW of energy, alongside enough power lines to stretch from ‘London to Baghdad’, as well as major grid upgrades and extensions. Presumably solar will also play a major part in the process, although this was not specifically seen in the report, but when you consider the monumental growth and investment in the sector in recent months, in most part down to the highly successful feed-in-tariff implemented, it would seem foolish to omit it.

This seemingly insurmountable plan is a direct response to the closure of 17 nuclear reactors across the nation as post-Fukushima fears and public unrest spread around the world, shutting down multiple country’s producing capabilities and forcing a rethink. Considering atom-splitting provided over 20% of Germany’s energy, Merkel has had to come up with a radical and extremely risky transition plan to overcome the inevitable energy shortages and emission increases.

The unfortunate reality is, that if this plan fails, then the country will be not only be in huge debt, but left with a chunk of it’s energy capacity taken out; but if the plan succeeds, Germany will become both the leading argument for green being done right and being completely possible, as well as ploughing millions into the industry, creating jobs left right and centre.

“Germany is like a big energy laboratory” - Stephan Reimelt of GE Germany

Despite this high-risk strategy, Germany is probably best placed to be beginning this process, as renewables already provide a healthy proportion of energy and the governments coffers hold enough money to go ahead without crippling fear of bankrupt or default. Combine this with Angela Merkel’s seemingly intense desire to install and incentivise solar and wind across the nation, it’s inspiring to see someone finally take the lead on this issue and actually put forward a potentially powerful solution.

It is also heart-warming to note that two of the biggest energy providers, E-ON and RWE, are following suit, ploughing cash into renewable projects and aiming to aid the government in its plans to reinvent Germany as green central. Despite the potential for major losses in profits if things don’t go to plan, both companies are supporting the transition, likely in part due to the fear of even bigger losses if nuclear gaps aren’t filled, and the apparent realisation that this “can be successful” and not just “because it’s nice”. In other words, they see big rewards if this technology comes to fruition, and would not miss out on what is probably their best chance of making a difference to the renewable world, and their margins.

Unfortunately, the hurdles needed to be jumped are daunting. 5,000 turbines is an unheard of number for a single-country wind farm, and the technical issues behind constructing new transmission lines to handle the juice are large to say the least. Even now, areas such as the Czech Republic are complaining that German wind farms are overloading their systems at peak hours of discharge, and adding more to this mix will requite intense planning and rigorous overseeing. As renewables are inherently unpredictable, they may leave the country dwindling in electricity at one point, only to overload the grid the next.

However this a poor view to take, as even now, on a sunny day, Germany produces more power than actually needed, and is actively exporting it to France. If grids can be updated, a problem I’m assuming accounted for in the plan, then an extra 5,000 turbines should be easily handled, and Germany will reap the rewards of surplus energy which can be exported to fledgling nations.

Furthermore, Spain, Sweden, Austria and Slovenia have all stated targets which intend to beat Germany’s own, facilitated greatly by their hydroelectric capabilities, providing a large portion of energy ready to be bolstered by wind and solar. If Germany, whilst building it’s own energy future can inspire others to actively compete and outdo themselves, maybe it will be enough to catch the attention of the big polluters such as the US and China and show them how it could be done.

After all, wouldn’t it be fantastic to progress into a world where countries fight over who has the most wind turbines, solar panels or ambitious targets for renewable energy production, rather than over shale gas deposits or oil imports. That sounds to me like the only real way we can make this attractive to those ignoring the problem.

Sources - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/germany-s-270-billion-renewables-shift-biggest-since-war.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/germany-is-spending-8-of-its-gdp-on-a-huge-risky-shift-to-renewable-energy-2012-3

Posted at 11:00am and tagged with: germany, solar, wind, renewable, merkel,.

March 13th 2012

One Small Step For Solar

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Solar installations by proportion across the world. www.greentechmedia.com

Some good news from SunTech and for the solar industry as a whole; it appears that the world record for PV efficiency has reached a pretty important milestone, and surpassed it. As of today, the company achieved an impressive 20.3% efficiency with its Pluto technology PV panels, taking the crown for highest rating ever. That may not seem like a huge number, but considering that enough solar energy falls on the planet in a day to FAR exceed the entire globe’s yearly budget, we can afford to let some of that light and warmth slip away.

With the company’s targets set on 21% for next year it looks like things could be getting much much better for solar, despite the costly price tag associated with the necessary procedures to knock that rating up a few places. Given the already impressive gains solar has made in recent years, especially in parts of Europe and the US West coast, coming out of the present feed-in-tariff protests and public scrutiny with an increased efficiency which is ever-growing, it could brand it a minor success.

Recent reports on both Germany and the UK also seem to show that despite solar’s future in these countries being rather unpredictable, there is still good money and sense in both systems. FIT cuts in Germany have been delayed due to the heavy protesting and domestic uproar from the nation’s citizens, and a more gradual decreasing incentive system has been employed, but even with this, installed panels across the country are massive in scale. On a good day with the sun beaming, Germany can produce more energy than is actually required, 133 to 90.5MW from all forms of energy, with renewables making up 20% of that. They’ve even begun exporting some of this extra stuff to France in the wake of nuclear distrust.

Over here in the UK, the 50% cuts are being felt hard by consumers, but it now costs just £9,000 rather than £13,00 for the average domestic install, and energy has fallen to £1 per watt, and that’s aside from the large stimulation the initial FIT induced. Returns on investments are currently at 15-16% instead of the originally quoted 5% government tariff, and many solar companies, Ploughcroft Solar most prominently, believe that those smaller companies who based their business upon 15% returns and hoped the FIT’s would last were foolish to think so, and that the more robust of the crop are ready for the cut and believe demand will keep on coming. Optimism it may be, but they are not wrong to see that even with these cuts, solar has benefited hugely and will likely continue to do so, at least to an extent much higher than prior to the tariff.

However it cannot be ignored that both these countries were victims of their own success, Germany especially. By offering such cost-effective and attractive options to consumers interested in solar, demand was massively underestimated, and despite producing the exact response they wanted, it was just too much. Hopefully future governments will learn from these mistakes and take into account that the public does actually want to invest in green alternatives, and when given the bait, will go straight for it, and complain of it is suddenly swept out from underneath them.

Solar is the one thing we can’t kill off before its even begun, it’s just got too much potential to be treated like that.

Posted at 9:42pm and tagged with: solar, germany, feed in tariff,.